🛑 The Cost Of The Federal Government's Shutdown On The Economy

Letter From The Editor
I hinted at some big changes that were coming back in the Summer, and the time has come.

irl Media NEWS is rebranding as The Business Behind The News (catchy name, huh?).

What do you need to do? Nothing.

Starting with next week’s newsletter you’ll see our new branding and redesigned newsletter, but still the same great content and commentary.

I know change is never easy. I’m guessing I’ll receive a number of unsubscribes, and some current subscribers will mark next week’s issue as spam when they get it and don’t recognize the new name and branding. To those subscribers that I lose I do hope I can regain your subscription in the future.

And to all of those who stick around I really do appreciate you’re loyalty, and I don’t take that for granted. I spend about 20 hours a week writing the newsletter and scripts for videos, filming, editing, and posting to YouTube all with the goal of making a living from this content someday.

I look forward to sharing the new Business Behind The News with you all next week.

Now onto the last issue of irl Media NEWS before we rebrand!

In today’s newsletter I discuss the cost of the federal government's shutdown on the economy, the NYSE is investing $2 billion dollars in prediction market Polymarket, Taylor Swift’s new film ‘Taylor Swift The Official Release Party of a Showgirl’ opened to huge numbers, Gold reached $4,000 dollars per troy ounce, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, 2025, there’s a planet that’s growing by 6.6 billion tons per second and there’s no end in sight, and Formula 1 team McLaren has won the 2025 Constructors Title for the second year in a row.

Scroll on!

The Business Behind The News

Top Story

🛑 The Cost Of The Federal Government’s Shutdown On The Economy

The government shutdown is costing American taxpayers an estimated $400 million dollars a day in the form of back pay for furloughed federal employees when the government reopens. That is if they get back pay at all - there have been some headlines in the last few days that are throwing that assumption into doubt, so we’ll see. It’s a stressful time for federal employees, as well as for all Americans and the U.S. economy.

There are approximately 750,000 federal employees who have been furloughed during this shutdown. This figure is based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which projects that under a 2019 law these employees are mandated to receive back pay once a funding deal is reached.

A government shutdown, which happens when Congress fails to pass funding bills before the fiscal year deadline, creates significant financial costs and economic disruption for all Americans, and uncertainty for the U.S. financial markets.

While the immediate visible effects are furloughed federal employees and closed agencies, the true expense is much broader. Economists generally agree that shutdowns do not save money but rather create unnecessary spending and lost economic activity. Understanding the numbers shows why.

The daily direct cost to taxpayers is primarily in the form of back pay to furloughed federal workers. In the last three government shutdowns that took place in 2013, 2018, and 2019, a bipartisan Senate report estimated that taxpayers were ultimately billed nearly $4 billion dollars. This total included at least $3.7 billion dollars for back pay to furloughed federal workers, and at least $338 million dollars in other costs, such as administrative work to prepare for and reopen the government, and late fees. The 16-day shutdown in 2013 alone resulted in federal employees receiving $2.5 billion dollars in pay and benefits for hours not worked, according to the White House Office of Management and Budget.

The total drag on the U.S. economy is even higher. The longest shutdown on record, the 35-day partial shutdown that began in December 2018 and ended in January 2019, is a great example of how not to run a government. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that this shutdown reduced the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by a total of $11 billion dollars over the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. The CBO also estimated that $3 billion dollars of that economic output was permanently lost and would never be recovered. Not a good look.

Moody's Analytics estimated that the full government shutdown in 2013 reduced GDP growth by $20 billion dollars. These figures show that each week a shutdown continues, the national economy takes a substantial hit. For a current shutdown, an estimate by Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, puts the weekly cost to the economy at $7 billion dollars, reducing GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points each week.

Beyond the GDP numbers, private businesses and individuals suffer from major disruptions. The 2018–2019 shutdown delayed over $2 billion dollars in loans to small businesses as the Small Business Administration could not issue new loans, according to Moody's Analytics. The National Park Service estimated in 2013 that over $500 million dollars was lost in visitor spending nationwide due to park closures. A federal government shutdown can interrupt the approximately $13 billion dollars per week in federal contracts that businesses across the country typically receive. When key economic data releases are delayed, like the September Jobs report that was missed on Friday, October 3, 2025, at 8:30 AM EST when it was supposed to come out, it also creates uncertainty for the Federal Reserve, investors, and business leaders around the world who are trying to make informed decisions.

The economic consequences of a government shutdown are severe and multilayered, and affect more than just the furloughed federal employees. Lost productivity, foregone revenue, delayed services, and damage to the overall GDP result in a significant economic loss for the entire country. Data from past government shutdowns shows that these political impasses have a real and permanent negative effect on the financial well-being of the United States.

Here's to hoping that our elected officials can put politics behind them and reopen the government soon for the good of the American people.

🎲 Business

The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange, is investing $2 billion dollars in prediction market Polymarket, valuing the company at approximately $8 billion dollars. Wall Street investing in a prediction website that lets you bet on everything from politics to culture is the most 2025 thing I’ve heard this year!

🎬 Entertainment

Taylor Swift’s new film ‘Taylor Swift The Official Release Party of a Showgirl’ opened to huge numbers, grossing $34 million dollars domestically and $50 million dollars worldwide during its limited theatrical run. Everything Taylor Swift touches turns gold, and with gold setting a new record-high of over $4,000 an ounce she’s raking in the dough!

🟡 Precious Metals

Gold reached $4,000 dollars per troy ounce for the first time ever on Tuesday, October 7, 2025. The historic surge was fueled by investor anxiety over the US government shutdown and President Donald Trump's ongoing tariff policies.

🪙 Crypto

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,200 on October 6, 2025.

That’s all. Just wanted rub it in the face of all my family and friends who didn’t listen to me back in 2013 when I told them all to buy! 🙂

🌕 Space

2025 is truly a bizarre year. Even planets are actin’ the fool. A planet called Cha 1107-7626, which is 620 light-years from Earth, is acting more like a star by consuming gas and dust which rains down upon the planet resulting in the planet growing by 6.6 billion tons per second! Per second people! Insane!

🏁 Sports

Formula 1 team McLaren has won the 2025 Constructors Title for the second year in a row, with Lando Noris taking 3rd place on the podium, and teammate Oscar Piastri finishing 4th. Those finishes were enough to seal Team McLaren’s Constructors Title. Now with only 6 races left in the season, it’s a battle between Landor Noris and Oscar Piastri to see who will win the Championship. I’m Team Piastri all the way, just sayin’.

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irl Media NEWSLETTER is written, edited, and published by Chris Thompson.